Maloney, Sean M. The Cool War

Nuclear Forces, Crisis Signaling, and the Russo-Ukraine War, 2014-2022

Nuclear signals are defined as the deliberate manoeuvring of nuclear forces to deter an adversary and influence their actions. Author Sean Maloney shows how Russian President Vladimir Putin systematically uses nuclear signals to compel both NATO and the United States to behave in a desired manner. This strategy has intensified significantly during the Russian-Ukrainian war, as Putin attempts to prevent Western intervention and support for Ukraine. Putin uses many forms of nuclear signals, including ordering jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons to fly in Western European airspace, conducting joint bomber exercises with China near Alaska, and instructing nuclear-armed submarines to surface through the Arctic pack ice. The frequency of these signals far exceeds similar activities during the Cold War and has led to an escalation to a more dangerous level than before. As Russia suffered setbacks on the battlefield, Putin often reinforced his nuclear posture by combining it with thinly veiled threats to use tactical nuclear weapons. Maloney argues convincingly that in the post-Cold War era, Putin has skilfully combined the use of nuclear signals with advances in information technology to manipulate Western nations more effectively. He claims that the United States was initially slow to recognise this development, but as the situation escalated, America and NATO developed a series of countermeasures that are now keeping Russia in check. The question is, for how much longer? Maloney concludes that Putin's nuclear posturing has had mixed results. First and foremost, Putin succeeded in deterring the United States and other NATO countries from direct military intervention in defence of Ukraine after the 2022 invasion. However, Russia's nuclear signals have neither deterred the West from providing Ukraine with weapons and intelligence nor stopped NATO's expansion. Nevertheless, Russia's partial success in the Cool War does not diminish the significance of this new reality or the scale of the problems the West will face in the future.