Swift,Jonathan S. Russia and its Neighbours

Could History Have Predicted Russia's War on Ukraine?

The world was shocked by Russias renewed invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Yet, given the history of Russian and Soviet aggression against Ukraine and other neighboring states, this war was foreseeable. The Red Army consistently pursued the goal of imposing its communist ideology on the world; in doing so, Soviet leaders relied heavily on military might and actively fostered unprecedented levels of violencea means of spreading fear and terror among the populations of the territories they attacked and occupied. From the atrocities committed by elite Red Army cavalry units in the Ukrainian village of Prelacy during the Civil War in October 1920, through the famine in Ukraine in 19461947when thousands starved because the Soviets forcibly confiscated grain and foodstuffsto the Russian invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014, which paved the way for the 2022 invasion of Ukraine: this study demonstrates that the recent invasion was not merely an isolated aberration of the Putin regime, but a repetition of history. The book illustrates how the current threat posed by Vladimir Putins Russia is a continuation of the dangers that emanated from communist governments prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Viewed in a broader context, Western nations today face not Russian communismwhich lacked the economic base to exert pressure on the Westbut Russian nationalism. This nationalism is underpinned by considerable economic strength derived from Russias vast reserves of oil, gas, timber, gold, coal, and other natural resources. The books thesis is that Putins long-term goal is to restore the borders of imperial (Tsarist) Russia; he views himself not as a head of government accountable to an electorate, but as the Tsar of a resurgent Russia possessing absolute power. Furthermore, the work examines the role of NATO and the far-reaching consequences of a Russian attack on a NATO member state, as well as the threats posed by nuclear weapons and cyber technology in modern warfare.